Document Type

Working Paper

Publication Date

5-24-2011

SSRN Discipline

Economics Research Network; Legal Scholarship Network; Criminal Law & Procedure eJournals; Microeconomic Theory eJournals; Experimental & Empirical Studies eJournals; Law School Research Papers - Legal Studies; LSN Subject Matter eJournals; Econometrics eJournals; Law School Research Papers - Public Law & Legal Theory; ERN Subject Matter eJournals; Financial Economics Network; Health Law eJournals

Abstract

Thousands of sex offenders in the United States are being held indefinitely under civil commitment programs The analysis in this Article suggests that none or precious few belong there Specifically in a large dataset an instrument as good as the one most widely used by experts the "Static99" could not identify even one sex offender who met the legal standards for commitment Supplementing such instruments with additional information appears not to improve matters so the failure of the instrument is profoundly disturbingThere are three possible responses 1 improve instruments to meet existing standards 2 lower the standards and 3 abandon sex offender civil commitment This Article focuses on the first response identifying and correcting flaws in the most widelyused instrument But the greater significance of the Article is to reframe the debate around the other two potential responses Can we predict the future well enough to justify the indefinite detention of "dangerous" people

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